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3 in a Row From the Fed, but More Cautious Moves Expected in 2026

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Markets are increasingly confident the US Fed will deliver a third consecutive 25bp on 10 December. But officials are divided over whether inflation...
Business

Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink About to End?

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Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We...
Business

What a Kevin Hassett Fed Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds, and the 60/40 Portfolio

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On Sunday afternoon, President Trump told reporters that he knew who he was going to officially pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve...
Business

Bitcoin’s Recovery: Short-Term Reaction to Fed Dovishness or a True Trend Change?

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The week was characterized by an intense flow of news, both in terms of global macro pricing and the internal dynamics of the crypto...
Business

S&P 500: Wall Street Trades the Über-Dove Fed Trial Balloon as AI Enters TPU Age

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US stocks didn’t simply rise on Tuesday — they traded as if someone quietly reached under the market’s chassis and flipped every switch that...
Business

How the Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

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In our last article, QE Is Coming, we focused on why the capital and financial markets have become so dependent on the Fed for...
Business

Fed Messaging Points to a More Cautious Market Cycle Ahead

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We are surprised that the financial markets were surprised by the hawkish tone of remarks from Fed officials this past week. Collectively, a few...
Business

QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots of Fed Dominance

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Here we go again. The overnight funding markets are showing signs of stress, and the scent of QE is in the air. Per New York...
Business

Repo Tight Enough for the Fed to Build Bills

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Repo has tightened, the effective funds rate has risen, and the Fed has reacted with a promise to buy T-bills. So far, heavier bills...
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