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The Year-End Macro Marathon: Why Every Data Point Matters and Where to Look

Key Takeaways A wave of delayed economic reports hits in December, with JOLTS, CPI, and the jobs report taking on outsized importance — one StockCharts resource charts it all Market volatility appears unusually subdued, even as key labor and inflation data...

LNG Sticker Shock Sends Europe Scrambling Back to Domestic Gas

Europe’s soaring electricity prices—now among the highest in the world—are forcing governments to rethink anti-oil and gas policies. Countries such as Germany, Italy, Greece, and the UK are quietly returning to hydrocarbons. Imported liquefied gas has come to replace Russian pipeline...

Black Friday Record Wins Don’t Guarantee a Strong December

Based solely on Black Friday sales data, the holiday shopping season may be decent despite poor consumer sentiment. According to Adobe Analytics, which draws data from over one trillion retail site visits, Black Friday online sales hit a record...

Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink About to End?

Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted...

Rates Spark: Bunds Still Rich, Treasuries Ponderous

As EUR rates have tested higher, Euribor-based swaps have faced upward pressure, leaving 10y versus IRS rich in recent weeks. Bund spreads over ESTR OIS have stayed close to their March average. Meanwhile, Treasuries are pausing and will...

Intel Outperformance Raises the Question of Whether to Take Profits

Year-to-date, domestic chipmaker significantly outperformed stock at 100.5% vs 28% respectively. As one of our most covered semiconductor stocks, this is not surprising. Over the years, we’ve consistently noted that Intel enjoys strategic protection, despite its cyclical shortcomings...

What a Kevin Hassett Fed Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds, and the 60/40 Portfolio

On Sunday afternoon, President Trump told reporters that he knew who he was going to officially pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve () Chair when Powell’s term expires in May 2026. While the formal announcement hasn’t been...

How can AI scale our capabilities at work?

KRIS NARAYANAN: A rep for sure is not going to remember what they said to you last year. But now AI-enabled reps can actually remember what was proposed to you last...

2025 in Focus: 10 Charts That Tell the Story

The 2025 season is coming to an end. This year has been anything but quiet: Trump’s historic return to the presidency, the April "Liberation Day" tariff shock, major AI breakthroughs, bitcoin’s volatile journey, and a stunning market rebound. Here...

The Santa Setup: What December Intermarket Price Action Might Look Like

Key Takeaways Stocks dipped to begin the year’s final month, and historical patterns point to strength leading into Christmas. A dollar breakdown and yield jump could be the start of something bigger. Consumer resilience and AI divergence are in the spotlight. Stocks begin...
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